What is happening with Covid-19 in North Somerset? Part 2 - or no spike and no lockdown

So, what has been happening with the number of reported Covid-19 cases in North Somerset since the last blog on this subject?  In local and national press, the news has been the closure of Weston General Hospital to new patients and the A&E department on 25 May, supposedly associated with a spike in numbers of cases of Covid-19 (See - https://www.thewestonmercury.co.uk/news/council-to-delay-reopening-services-after-south-west-r-rate-reaches-uk-high-1-6683792).  Matt Hancock also commented on the spike and the lockdown in Weston-super-Mare.  

Continuing to use the number of daily cases reported on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ for North Somerset, there is an interesting pattern emerging.  From the 16 April 2020 when I started noting the numbers up to 24 May, there has been a continuous increase in the number of cases averaging just under seven cases a day (6.8).  It is a remarkably straight line, possibly indicating that whatever actions were being taken were having either a constant impact or no impact.  From 25 May onwards, there is evidence of a reducing rate of new cases.  
 

Looking in detail from 20 May onwards, if one were to assume a linear increase in cases, the rate has dropped to just under 5 cases a day (4.9).  Over the last few days, there is a significant drop from the rate of 7 cases every day, which is a welcome sign.  Watch this space for further trends.

A key point to make is that there is NO EVIDENCE OF A SPIKE IN CASES, either before or after Weston General was closed to new patients on 25 May (https://www.thewestonmercury.co.uk/news/outbreak-of-coronavirus-at-weston-general-hospital-1-6669079).  I wonder what exactly was meant by those reported in the press.  Interestingly, Mike Bell of North Somerset Council also had to correct Hancock by pointing out that there had been no further lockdown in Weston, as there were no such powers.  The questions remain.  Why has there been a linear increase in Covid-19 cases in North Somerset for a month and a half, including holidays when there were large numbers of visitors from elsewhere?  Why are there still more cases in North Somerset per day compared with Bristol (averaging only 1.2 new cases per day)?  Why are there more cases per 100000 population in North Somerset compared with Bristol (225 v. 154 in Bristol)?

I have been noting the number of cases in Bristol only since 23 May – see the plot below.  This also seems to have a linear increase in numbers of cases, but at a rate much lower than in North Somerset.  The absolute number of cases is higher in Bristol, but the number per 100000 is much lower (154), i.e. the absolute rate of infection is lower in Bristol.  Is this just a reflection of the population demographics?  Are there fewer children and more older people in North Somerset, i.e. are there more susceptible people?  Is it that fewer people wear masks in North Somerset than elsewhere?

I hope those responsible have the answers.  Do please comment.
 

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