Barton news

Oh dear!  Two weeks ago, I was suggesting that the numbers of confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Bristol recorded o n the government website  were climbing at a faster rate than previously.  Now, the numbers not only show this is the case in Bristol, but also in North Somerset.  In Bristol, the number of new cases per day is just under 12.  In North Somerset, numbers of cases were below one per day for June, July and August.  Alas, the rate has accelerated over the last two weeks and the rate is now back to more than 7 cases per day, similar to the rate we had in April and May. OK, we need to try to get back to some normality for the sake of the economy, education, jobs and income, not forgetting our mental health.  Nevertheless, these data show that we really must keep up Covid-19 precautions and social distancing, as we open up society.  We do not want a second wave, but is this the first signs?

So, what’s been happening to the number of Covid-19 cases in North Somerset and Bristol according to government figures over the last month?  Well, in North Somerset it has been steady as you go, with new cases confirmed at a rate of less than one a day (0.8 per day).  After the horror rate of nearly seven new cases a day through April and May, this is very good news, even if we have ended up with a total recorded rate of 434 cases per 100000 people.  The picture for Bristol is rather more concerning at present – see the graph.  Over July, when the figures included both NHS and private test results, new cases were recorded at a rate of three every two days.  This doubled to three a day for the second half of July and since the beginning of August has doubled again to nearly seven new cases a day.  OK, the total rate of infection is still less than North Somerset, at 317 cases per 100000 people, but Bristol is catching up fast.  This is evidence of an a...

Is Covid-19 in North Somerset climbing again? The way the number of daily cases reported on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ for England was changed on the 2 July to include all the corona virus testing from independent and other testing (so-called Pillar 1 and 2).  The adjustment in the total number of cases indicated initially that the number of new cases continued in North Somerset at roughly one new case every other day for the month from mid-June (data points in yellow and blue).  There was an adjustment to the data on 19 July because of double counting.  Since then the data shown in green has a worrying increase in case numbers, up to 1.2 new cases per day in North Somerset.  There is only a week’s worth of data, so may be the rate will drop back, but as lockdown is now easing, we need to be careful.  Covid-19 has not gone away and could be increasing.   For the record, the data from Bristol indicates a steady increase in case numbers, averaging 1.5 c...

The really good news is that the number of daily cases reported on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ for North Somerset has reduced markedly – see below.  A little over a week into June and the numbers of cases reported from NHS testing (so-called Pillar 1 data) reduced from nearly 7 new cases a day, to one new case every two days.  From the 2 July, the data reported by government was changed to include all the corona virus testing from independent and other testing (so-called Pillar 1 and 2).  The result was to boost the total of cases from 492 to 905, or from 230 cases per 100000 to 423 cases per 100000.   I have been noting the number of cases in Bristol only since 23 May – see the plot below.   These data indicate rather little change in numbers of new cases.   The change to Pillar1 & 2 numbers moved the numbers from 729 to 1276, or from 157 cases per 100000 to 275 per 100000.   The picture in Bristol is that the absolute number of cases is hig...

So, what has been happening with the number of reported Covid-19 cases in North Somerset since the last blog on this subject?  In local and national press, the news has been the closure of Weston General Hospital to new patients and the A&E department on 25 May, supposedly associated with a spike in numbers of cases of Covid-19 (See - https://www.thewestonmercury.co.uk/news/council-to-delay-reopening-services-after-south-west-r-rate-reaches-uk-high-1-6683792).  Matt Hancock also commented on the spike and the lockdown in Weston-super-Mare.   Continuing to use the number of daily cases reported on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ for North Somerset, there is an interesting pattern emerging.  From the 16 April 2020 when I started noting the numbers up to 24 May, there has been a continuous increase in the number of cases averaging just under seven cases a day (6.8).  It is a remarkably straight line, possibly indicating that whatever actions were being ta...

Since surgery for prostate cancer in January 2019, I've been keeping a diary recording steps, alcohol intake and bodily functions.  Sometime this year, I started adding data on coronavirus.  The government publish data daily on numbers of cases and numbers of deaths at:  https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/   and since 16 April 2020, I have been noting the numbers of Covid-19 cases in North Somerset.  This morning, just for interest, I plotted the data in Excel and added a trend line, to visualise progress with infection. The result was surprising: Instead of a reducing number of cases, the trend appears to be linear, indicating that there is a constant rate of infection.  So what is going on in North Somerset?  I don't have data for Bristol, where one might expect higher rates, but casual inspection indicates rather few new cases compared with North Somerset. In Bristol, the infection rate per 100000 people is 148.3.  In North Somerset, we have had...