What is happening with Covid-19 in North Somerset?
Since surgery for prostate cancer in January 2019, I've been keeping a diary recording steps, alcohol intake and bodily functions. Sometime this year, I started adding data on coronavirus. The government publish data daily on numbers of cases and numbers of deaths at: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ and since 16 April 2020, I have been noting the numbers of Covid-19 cases in North Somerset. This morning, just for interest, I plotted the data in Excel and added a trend line, to visualise progress with infection. The result was surprising:
Instead of a reducing number of cases, the trend appears to be linear, indicating that there is a constant rate of infection. So what is going on in North Somerset? I don't have data for Bristol, where one might expect higher rates, but casual inspection indicates rather few new cases compared with North Somerset. In Bristol, the infection rate per 100000 people is 148.3. In North Somerset, we have had 164.1 cases of coronavirus per 100000 people. On the Covid-19 app collecting data for Kings College London, the current estimated percentage of people in North Somerset with symtomatic Covid-19 is 1.0%, while in Bristol it is 0.5% - see https://covid.joinzoe.com/
Are we getting lazy in lockdown, or is there some other explanation for the trend in infections in North Somerset?
Instead of a reducing number of cases, the trend appears to be linear, indicating that there is a constant rate of infection. So what is going on in North Somerset? I don't have data for Bristol, where one might expect higher rates, but casual inspection indicates rather few new cases compared with North Somerset. In Bristol, the infection rate per 100000 people is 148.3. In North Somerset, we have had 164.1 cases of coronavirus per 100000 people. On the Covid-19 app collecting data for Kings College London, the current estimated percentage of people in North Somerset with symtomatic Covid-19 is 1.0%, while in Bristol it is 0.5% - see https://covid.joinzoe.com/
Are we getting lazy in lockdown, or is there some other explanation for the trend in infections in North Somerset?
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