Barton news

  What a difference a month makes! Since my last post, the rate of government reported Covid-19 cases has rocketed in both North Somerset and Bristol - see the figures below.  In Bristol, the infection rate is a staggering 330 new cases per day and has been at that rate since the 22 October.  Apparently, the infection rate is high in particular areas, notably Bishopsworth (see: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/nov/19/the-mystery-of-bristols-soaring-covid-19-infection-rate), but the reasons are obscure.  For those using the Zoe-Covid app (https://covid.joinzoe.com/), the map available to those logging shows a marked concentration of cases in the university/college towns and cities of the south-west - Bristol, Bath, Exeter, Plymouth.  Of course, these are the centres of population, but there is a suspicion that students returning to college have brought more than their books! In North Somerset, we have been averaging more than 70 new cases every day, since the 22 October.  Lookin

A month ago, I was suggesting the rates of Covid-19 in North Somerset and Bristol were accelerating.  Data from the government (see: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/) on numbers of cases in the last week has shown a jump in cases again, to well over the rates we saw back in April.  In Bristol, we have seen a doubling of the rate each month since July.  At the moment, the rate is a huge 60 new cases per day, indicating that there may be an exponential increase in cases.  In North Somerset we are seeing 16 new cases per day, more than double our previous highest rate.  The Covid app (https://covid.joinzoe.com/) is perhaps indicating that case numbers are stabilising, but clearly the message for all of us around Bristol is to maintain social distancing, wearing masks and hygiene.  The rates currently look linear, rather than exponential, but the jump in case numbers is worrying. Bristol: North Somerset:

Oh dear!  Two weeks ago, I was suggesting that the numbers of confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Bristol recorded o n the government website  were climbing at a faster rate than previously.  Now, the numbers not only show this is the case in Bristol, but also in North Somerset.  In Bristol, the number of new cases per day is just under 12.  In North Somerset, numbers of cases were below one per day for June, July and August.  Alas, the rate has accelerated over the last two weeks and the rate is now back to more than 7 cases per day, similar to the rate we had in April and May. OK, we need to try to get back to some normality for the sake of the economy, education, jobs and income, not forgetting our mental health.  Nevertheless, these data show that we really must keep up Covid-19 precautions and social distancing, as we open up society.  We do not want a second wave, but is this the first signs?

So, what’s been happening to the number of Covid-19 cases in North Somerset and Bristol according to government figures over the last month?  Well, in North Somerset it has been steady as you go, with new cases confirmed at a rate of less than one a day (0.8 per day).  After the horror rate of nearly seven new cases a day through April and May, this is very good news, even if we have ended up with a total recorded rate of 434 cases per 100000 people.  The picture for Bristol is rather more concerning at present – see the graph.  Over July, when the figures included both NHS and private test results, new cases were recorded at a rate of three every two days.  This doubled to three a day for the second half of July and since the beginning of August has doubled again to nearly seven new cases a day.  OK, the total rate of infection is still less than North Somerset, at 317 cases per 100000 people, but Bristol is catching up fast.  This is evidence of an acceleration in infection and one m

We have a problem that is specific to life in the countryside – ever larger tractors and associated machinery on country lanes.  I appreciate that living in the country brings privileges, especially under Covid-19 lockdown, when we have been able to walk out of our garden and not meet many, if any, people.   However, when we, our dogs, the verges and roadside walls are threatened by high speed tractors and trailers weighing tons, there is a time to speak out.   Our lane was built for traffic that consisted of a horse and cart and many rural roads across the UK are just the same.   The mechanisation revolution in agriculture that started around the Second World War still continues.   With ever fewer people working on farms, the technological answer has been to develop larger and larger and ever more powerful machinery.   The larger the tractor, the less time it takes to work a field.   This brings time efficiency, but at what cost?   More and more stock farmers around us use contracto

Is Covid-19 in North Somerset climbing again? The way the number of daily cases reported on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ for England was changed on the 2 July to include all the corona virus testing from independent and other testing (so-called Pillar 1 and 2).  The adjustment in the total number of cases indicated initially that the number of new cases continued in North Somerset at roughly one new case every other day for the month from mid-June (data points in yellow and blue).  There was an adjustment to the data on 19 July because of double counting.  Since then the data shown in green has a worrying increase in case numbers, up to 1.2 new cases per day in North Somerset.  There is only a week’s worth of data, so may be the rate will drop back, but as lockdown is now easing, we need to be careful.  Covid-19 has not gone away and could be increasing.   For the record, the data from Bristol indicates a steady increase in case numbers, averaging 1.5 cases a day, a little higher t