Barton news

  What a difference a month makes! Since my last post, the rate of government reported Covid-19 cases has rocketed in both North Somerset and Bristol - see the figures below.  In Bristol, the infection rate is a staggering 330 new cases per day and has been at that rate since the 22 October.  Apparently, the infection rate is high in particular areas, notably Bishopsworth (see: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/nov/19/the-mystery-of-bristols-soaring-covid-19-infection-rate), but the reasons are obscure.  For those using the Zoe-Covid app (https://covid.joinzoe.com/), the map available to those logging shows a marked concentration of cases in the university/college towns and cities of the south-west - Bristol, Bath, Exeter, Plymouth.  Of course, these are the centres of population, but there is a suspicion that students returning to college have brought more than their books! In North Somerset, we have been averaging more than 70 new cases every ...

A month ago, I was suggesting the rates of Covid-19 in North Somerset and Bristol were accelerating.  Data from the government (see: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/) on numbers of cases in the last week has shown a jump in cases again, to well over the rates we saw back in April.  In Bristol, we have seen a doubling of the rate each month since July.  At the moment, the rate is a huge 60 new cases per day, indicating that there may be an exponential increase in cases.  In North Somerset we are seeing 16 new cases per day, more than double our previous highest rate.  The Covid app (https://covid.joinzoe.com/) is perhaps indicating that case numbers are stabilising, but clearly the message for all of us around Bristol is to maintain social distancing, wearing masks and hygiene.  The rates currently look linear, rather than exponential, but the jump in case numbers is worrying. Bristol: North Somerset:

Oh dear!  Two weeks ago, I was suggesting that the numbers of confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Bristol recorded o n the government website  were climbing at a faster rate than previously.  Now, the numbers not only show this is the case in Bristol, but also in North Somerset.  In Bristol, the number of new cases per day is just under 12.  In North Somerset, numbers of cases were below one per day for June, July and August.  Alas, the rate has accelerated over the last two weeks and the rate is now back to more than 7 cases per day, similar to the rate we had in April and May. OK, we need to try to get back to some normality for the sake of the economy, education, jobs and income, not forgetting our mental health.  Nevertheless, these data show that we really must keep up Covid-19 precautions and social distancing, as we open up society.  We do not want a second wave, but is this the first signs?

So, what’s been happening to the number of Covid-19 cases in North Somerset and Bristol according to government figures over the last month?  Well, in North Somerset it has been steady as you go, with new cases confirmed at a rate of less than one a day (0.8 per day).  After the horror rate of nearly seven new cases a day through April and May, this is very good news, even if we have ended up with a total recorded rate of 434 cases per 100000 people.  The picture for Bristol is rather more concerning at present – see the graph.  Over July, when the figures included both NHS and private test results, new cases were recorded at a rate of three every two days.  This doubled to three a day for the second half of July and since the beginning of August has doubled again to nearly seven new cases a day.  OK, the total rate of infection is still less than North Somerset, at 317 cases per 100000 people, but Bristol is catching up fast.  This is evidence of an a...

We have a problem that is specific to life in the countryside – ever larger tractors and associated machinery on country lanes.  I appreciate that living in the country brings privileges, especially under Covid-19 lockdown, when we have been able to walk out of our garden and not meet many, if any, people.   However, when we, our dogs, the verges and roadside walls are threatened by high speed tractors and trailers weighing tons, there is a time to speak out.   Our lane was built for traffic that consisted of a horse and cart and many rural roads across the UK are just the same.   The mechanisation revolution in agriculture that started around the Second World War still continues.   With ever fewer people working on farms, the technological answer has been to develop larger and larger and ever more powerful machinery.   The larger the tractor, the less time it takes to work a field.   This brings time efficiency, but at what cost?   More and mor...

Is Covid-19 in North Somerset climbing again? The way the number of daily cases reported on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ for England was changed on the 2 July to include all the corona virus testing from independent and other testing (so-called Pillar 1 and 2).  The adjustment in the total number of cases indicated initially that the number of new cases continued in North Somerset at roughly one new case every other day for the month from mid-June (data points in yellow and blue).  There was an adjustment to the data on 19 July because of double counting.  Since then the data shown in green has a worrying increase in case numbers, up to 1.2 new cases per day in North Somerset.  There is only a week’s worth of data, so may be the rate will drop back, but as lockdown is now easing, we need to be careful.  Covid-19 has not gone away and could be increasing.   For the record, the data from Bristol indicates a steady increase in case numbers, averaging 1.5 c...

The really good news is that the number of daily cases reported on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ for North Somerset has reduced markedly – see below.  A little over a week into June and the numbers of cases reported from NHS testing (so-called Pillar 1 data) reduced from nearly 7 new cases a day, to one new case every two days.  From the 2 July, the data reported by government was changed to include all the corona virus testing from independent and other testing (so-called Pillar 1 and 2).  The result was to boost the total of cases from 492 to 905, or from 230 cases per 100000 to 423 cases per 100000.   I have been noting the number of cases in Bristol only since 23 May – see the plot below.   These data indicate rather little change in numbers of new cases.   The change to Pillar1 & 2 numbers moved the numbers from 729 to 1276, or from 157 cases per 100000 to 275 per 100000.   The picture in Bristol is that the absolute number of cases is hig...

There have been teams digging up the lane in Barton for superfast broadband over the past two to three years.   We have waited for connection over a similar timescale.   Earlier in the year, we actually had our connection pot installed on the road verge, after we had been missed out.   In May, we had progress when the Gigaclear fibre line was connected to the house.   On 26 May, the line was run from our connection pot on the lane, through the wall by the road, along a shallow trench in the lawn, through the house wall to a box on the sitting room wall.   Unfortunately, however, there was a blockage found 50 m down the road, so we were unable to find out how superfast our broadband might be.   Up to now, we have survived on BT’s maximum of 8 Mbs, with buffering a regular feature. A team came on 10 June to sort the block and splice the fibre.   The story was that the block required the road being closed and dug up, as not only was the block at 50 m, the...

So, what has been happening with the number of reported Covid-19 cases in North Somerset since the last blog on this subject?  In local and national press, the news has been the closure of Weston General Hospital to new patients and the A&E department on 25 May, supposedly associated with a spike in numbers of cases of Covid-19 (See - https://www.thewestonmercury.co.uk/news/council-to-delay-reopening-services-after-south-west-r-rate-reaches-uk-high-1-6683792).  Matt Hancock also commented on the spike and the lockdown in Weston-super-Mare.   Continuing to use the number of daily cases reported on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ for North Somerset, there is an interesting pattern emerging.  From the 16 April 2020 when I started noting the numbers up to 24 May, there has been a continuous increase in the number of cases averaging just under seven cases a day (6.8).  It is a remarkably straight line, possibly indicating that whatever actions were being ta...

Have you noticed the heavy advertising for travel and tourism?   It seems to be in every medium. just as lockdown is easing.   Have you ever thought: Why do we expect to travel the globe and be tourists everywhere?   What is this sense of entitlement?   What does travel do to climate, to local communities, wildlife etc.?   What should we be doing? Fairly recently, I heard the following: “Everybody has the right to travel to wherever they wish”.   Pre-coronavirus, that was probably a very widely held opinion.   However, at the very simplest level, this is patently now not the case.   I am not able to visit my grandchildren in Scotland.   If we were to follow our inclination to go where we like, when we like, in fairly short order we would likely be subject to state intervention and sanctions – and in my opinion, under current coronavirus conditions, rightly too, including Mr Cummings.   So, how does this sit with our apparently insatiab...

Do please read this book, if you haven't already.  It is well written and easy to read and describes the development of the Knepp estate rewilding project.  It also has some critically important messages that need to be spread far and wide.  Some 20 years ago, I visited the controversial Oostvaardersplassen grazing project in the Netherlands and I must now get to Knepp, as soon as the Covid-19 virus allows.  I've known about Knepp for some years and have been meaning to visit, but it hasn't happened yet.  Having read the book, I have a much clearer idea of how it came about and the struggles to achieve what is a critical initiative amongst the UK rewilding projects.  As a scientist that spent much of my career looking at farmland ecology and ways of maintaining biodiversity, particularly with field margins and hedgerows, this book challenges a host of underlying assumptions.  That is the key importance of the book for me.  However, ...

I've spent the morning on this lovely sunny day up on the Mendips above Barton.  I was making a botanical inventory on three of the seven plots I look after as part of the National Plant Monitoring Scheme - see:  https://www.npms.org.uk/   This recording scheme started a few years ago and has three levels of recording - wildflowers, selected indicator species or inventory - so anyone can have a grid square and can have a go.  My phone app tells me I was out for nearly 3 hours and covered 4.7 km, so that is good exercise for today.  It is amazingly dry on the limestone, so some plants seem advanced, while others, notably the grasses seem delayed.  It all looks very Mediterranean up there. I was lucky enough to re-find two nationally rare species in one of my plots - honewort ( Trinia glauca )  https://www.brc.ac.uk/plantatlas/plant/trinia-glauca  and Somerset hair-grass ( Koeleria  vallesiana)  https://www.brc.ac.uk/plantatlas/plant/koele...

Since surgery for prostate cancer in January 2019, I've been keeping a diary recording steps, alcohol intake and bodily functions.  Sometime this year, I started adding data on coronavirus.  The government publish data daily on numbers of cases and numbers of deaths at:  https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/   and since 16 April 2020, I have been noting the numbers of Covid-19 cases in North Somerset.  This morning, just for interest, I plotted the data in Excel and added a trend line, to visualise progress with infection. The result was surprising: Instead of a reducing number of cases, the trend appears to be linear, indicating that there is a constant rate of infection.  So what is going on in North Somerset?  I don't have data for Bristol, where one might expect higher rates, but casual inspection indicates rather few new cases compared with North Somerset. In Bristol, the infection rate per 100000 people is 148.3.  In North Somerset, we have had...

E-mail to the local Weston-Super-Mare MP, John Penrose, sent on 15/05/2020: Dear Mr Penrose I rarely contact you, but following yesterdays Commons business in relation to the production and environmental standards of food that will be imported in the future, I am impelled to register my amazement and disappointment.  If the coronavirus pandemic has taught us anything, surely it must be that obesity and type 2 diabetes are avoidable problems that impact the NHS and society more generally.  Logically, therefore, how can importing low standard cheap foodstuffs that often find their way into the highly processed diet of those most at risk to Covid-19 be defendable.  The lack of logic here is staggering.  This also seems to be a kick in the teeth for UK agriculture, who are obliged to produce food to high standards, and still compete in the world market, but now on a highly skewed playing field.  I understand from the press that the PM is taking up the iss...

It's the 17th May 2020.  Coroavirus is creeping up again in North Somerset and this week, I had a telecall with my oncology consultant on the state of play with my prostate cancer.  Tragically, our dear friend Ruth Spalding collapsed and died a fortnight ago and her husband Mike came for a cup of tea yesterday.  We have been in contact a lot, but it was good to meet, albeit observing the 2 m social distance.  We sat outside, enjoying the great weather we have had since the lockdown, with louder birdsong and clean air.  With so much that has happened and with time at home to consider the state of the globe, the country and our circumstances, I feel it is time to restart a blog, with occasional posts on topics that need to be considered, alongside news from sleepy Barton. Echium pininana (3 m) and Echium candicans not yet flowering